2 December 2019. CPM Group today issued a silver buy recommendation for investors with an intermediate-term investment horizon, which CPM puts as a two- to three-year time horizon.

“The silver market is at a critical vertex at present,” CPM Group’s Vice President in charge of Research Rohit Savant said in announcing the buy recommendation. “Silver market fundamentals are precariously similar to the critically poor conditions that existed in 1989. Our expectations are that the market may avoid the long period of net investor silver selling and low prices that followed from that year, however. Prices seem more likely to rise in the years ahead rather that to decline. There are many external as well as internal factors behind our analysis. That said, super bulls will continue to be disappointed by silver.”

“CPM has waited until now for a variety of reasons known to our clients. For one, the market has not supported strongly higher prices over the past few years. As a result prices have not moved sharply off their 2015 – 2016 lows, as the attached chart shows,” CPM Managing Partner Jeffrey M. Christian said.

Further information on CPM’s silver market views, along with previously unpublished information on major silver investors over the past four decades is available on the attached presentation CPM made earlier in November.

CPM’s previous intermediate-term investor recommendation on silver was on 2 May 2011, when silver touched $48.19 and CPM advised selling. (CPM Market Alert XXIV-3, Gold Overheated; Silver In A Bubble, 2011-05-02.)

CPM previously issued a similar buy recommendation for gold in 2013, having issued a sell recommendation on that metal on 5 January 2012. (CPM Precious Metals Advisory XXXV-1, A Time To Sell, 2012-01-05.)

• Since 1 December 1980 these recommendations have been to short silver 53% of the time, and to be long silver 47% of the time.

• The theoretical return from following CPM’s buy and sell recommendations would have been 57,434.3%, or an 18.9% compounded return. This compares to a 5.5% increase or 0.14% annual return for silver bought and held during the same period.

The monthly Precious Metals Advisory report provides comprehensive coverage of medium-term developments and prospects for the precious metals markets. It contains commentary, information, analysis, and near-term price outlooks for gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and rhodium, as well as a discussion of the economic environment and financial markets as they affect metals prices (20+ pages).

The Precious Metals Advisory also provides:

• Tables on precious metals equities and bullion coins, as well as market metrics data on the metals markets, currencies, and the economy.
• Charts on non-commercial positions, open interest, inventories, and prices.
• Special reports, and other information on individual metals markets developments.
• Updated statistical position tables and supply and demand projections at critical points during the year.
• 1-month, 3-month, and 1-year price targets.
• Projections of average prices for gold, silver, platinum, palladium, and rhodium for the next eight quarters

Click here for information on CPM’s monthly Precious Metals Advisory.